[This is the concluding part of a three-part post on the Digital Music Landscape. You can read the first post and the second post to get up to speed]
Let’s look at the services that exist in the West against the services for Indian music in an attempt to look at how music recommendations serve people’s needs. In the previous posts, we’ve discussed a few approaches for recommendation. Let’s pair that up against the following music consumption models:
- Downloads: Wherein the service allows you to browse and download songs for purchase. Most services allow downloaded songs to be played in any device/player but certain services provide DRM-restricted songs. Such songs can only be played on certain devices or certain players.
- On-demand streaming: The user can listen to any music, any time. These services are either free (ad-supported) or based on a subscription plan. Increasingly, the free plans are getting capped to a limited amount of music.
- Non-Interactive streaming: The service is pre-programmed with content, allowing users to only skip tracks and provide ratings. The content is either delivered through a recommendation engine based on the users’ taste or curated by experts.
Download services limit the number of songs people can listen to (only purchased songs) while streaming offers potentially unlimited number of songs for listening. On the other hand, downloaded songs can be listened to anytime, anywhere. Whereas, streaming services typically require an internet connection. The line between download and stream services is blurring though, as the download services are providing cloud-based features in addition to song previews; and streaming services are allowing downloads either directly or through other download services.
Music Consumption – Mature Markets
|Service||Consumption model||Recommendation approach based on
|Download||On-demand||Non-interactive||Musical attributes||Wisdom of the Crowds||Expert curation
Music Consumption – India
|Service||Consumption model||Recommendation approach based on
|Dowload||On-Demand||Non-Interactive||Musical attributes||Wisdom of the Crowds||Expert curation
A more detailed look at the Indian music services show that:
- There are fewer consumption choices in India.
- There is very little differentiation between various services.
- The business model behind some of these services is not evident. All streaming services are free to users. Do they make enough money from ads? What about those that don’t even show ads?
- Services are in the early stages of building recommendation capabilities. Recommendations from Indian services are either poor or limited (e.g.: NH7 does a pretty good job but serves a niche).
- A lot of popular Indian music is made for films and has unique factors driving people’s interests – music directors, singers, lyricists, actors on which they are filmed, etc. These factors don’t come into play for non-Indian music.
- Interest in multiples languages need to be catered to.
- Services have big holes in their song catalogs because of limitations in their licensing agreements.
Given all these challenges, the quest is still on for a good, Indian music service that is comparable to an iTunes or a Spotify. While we’re not launching a music consumption service (not yet at least!), we at Mavrix keenly watch this space because we’re trying to solve one of the challenges listed above – that of serving good recommendations. We will be launching MySwar in a few days as a first step in this journey.
Our website got a bunch of Google hits with various permutations of the “iCloud India” keywords. I guess that means that a lot of us are wondering if iCloud will come to India. Will it? I think yes, and here’s why.
- Apple says so! Apple’s US website is very well coordinated with product releases. The announcements at WWDC (iCloud, iOS5, OS X Lion) were up on their US website within half an hour of the keynote’s end. Apple’s India website tends to play catch up and does not always give visitors a clear picture of Apple’s India offerings. For example, Apple India’s iTunes page gives no clue that you can’t really buy iTunes music in India. This is revealed to you via a tiny, indirect disclaimer on the download page. By contrast, their new iCloud page is extremely relevant to India:
- They made an effort to use “Coming this autumn” for India (not “Coming this fall”).
- There is an explicit disclaimer on the iCloud page that the awkwardly named “iTunes on the Cloud” service starts in the US and that music cannot be purchased in India.
To me, this explicit, well-coordinated update to Apple India’s iCloud page means that India is definitely getting all iCloud features except some iTunes on the Cloud features.
- Part of iCloud is replacement for MobileMe, Apple’s erstwhile paid service for syncing email, contacts and calendar. Apple has been selling MobileMe in India for some time now (though with a weird Singapore Dollar pricing). Apple may delay launching new products in India, but it’s unlikely it will leave existing customers without an alternative.
To summarize – It is very likely that India will get the iCloud extension of all Apple services/features it already has. Since iTunes music purchases are not available in India, it is obvious that the music related features of iTunes on the Cloud (syncing songs and iTunes Match) will also not be available in India.
Since Apple’s big iCloud announcement a couple of days ago, the internet has been abuzz with people expressing disappointment at the iCloud not going far enough when it came to music (like here, and here). What did Apple miss? Streaming.
Broadly, there seem to be two camps of people when it comes to music listening preference – one that prefers listening to streaming music (via services like Rdio, Spotify, Pandora, Raaga, Saavn) and the other that prefers owned music played locally on their computers, mobile phones, media players or other devices. But even those who prefer owning music (like I do), probably use streaming as an option to discover and sample before they buy.
So, regardless of your listening preferences, you may feel that iCloud missed the bus by not allowing streaming of music via subscription. Amazon Cloud and Google Music Beta also missed that same bus, by the way. They allow streaming but only of the music you already own. In fact, Amazon actually charges you for it. (Duh?!) Google has conveniently not revealed its pricing.
Coming back to iCloud. Streaming of purchased music may not make sense, but why not give customers the option to stream music they don’t own as well as buy songs if they choose to?
My guess is that it could be due to the following reasons:
- Profitability – Apple has a predictably profitable model of selling music through iTunes. On the other hand, streaming services have struggled for profitability, whether it’s the ad-supported Pandora, or subscription-based Spotify. And while streaming services are becoming increasingly popular, they still do not represent a sizeable enough market for Apple to be interested (not yet at least).
- Risk – iCloud is going to put considerable pressure on Apple’s resources (including their cloud infrastructure) and they know it. Why do you think Steve Jobs showed off the pictures of their huge server farm? Apple wants to come back strongly after MobileMe’s failure (Steve Jobs described it as “Not our finest hour” in the keynote at WWDC), and is not willing to take on the risk associated with the burden of streaming music.
- Concerns around bandwidth usage – A few days ago, I wrote a post about why 3G economics don’t work for streaming music in India. According to Paul Lamere, a music+tech guru and a passionate supporter of music subscription services, people in the US can get an unlimited 3G data plan “for the cost of a good meal”. That may be the case today but even in the US, people are becoming more aware of their rapidly increasing mobile bandwidth usage and carriers are shutting down unlimited data plans. Perhaps Apple believes that the consumers’ and the carriers’ increased sensitivity to bandwidth usage may adversely impact the streaming music market.
What is iCloud?
iCloud is Apple’s service that allows consumers to shift their storage hub from local hard-drives to the internet. iCloud takes care of syncing a variety of content and information (contacts, mails, calendars, music, photos, videos, documents, etc.) across multiple devices. The following apps are available on iCloud:
- Contacts, Calendar, Mail are available on iCloud for free. Apple is shutting down MobileMe, the product that used to do the same at $99 per year.
- Apps Store
- Device backup – Backs up important settings and loads on new device
- Documents in the cloud – Supports availability of Pages/Numbers/Keynote across devices.
- iCloud storage APIs – For developers to build iCloud apps
- Photo Stream – Stores the last 1000 photos on the cloud. Allows access across devices. People with more than 1000 photos can move older ones from Photo Stream to their device.
- Anything bought on iTunes can be re-downloaded on 10 devices
- Automated download to all devices. Download starts when you plug in your iPhone for charging.
- For non-iTunes music, consumers can
- Sync devices
- Buy the songs from iTunes, so it’s available on iCloud
- Buy the iTunes Match service at about $25/year. The service lets you match your non-iTunes tracks to iTunes’ 18 million song catalog. Matched songs have the same support as iTunes songs – 256K downloads (even if the original track is less than 256K) available on 10 devices. Unmatched songs will be available on the cloud as is. Apple claims that the matching takes minutes (as opposed to the “weeks” it takes to upload music to Google Music Beta or Amazon Cloud).
How much will iCloud cost?
Some details are not known but for the most part, iCloud is free. Storage for purchased music, apps, books and the 1000 Photo Stream photos are free of cost. 5GB of storage is available for free for mails, documents and backup. Apple indicates that 5GB is more than enough and does not even address the possibility of the need for more than 5GB. The only component of iCloud that costs money is iTunes Match at $24.99.
When will iCloud be available?
iTunes on iCloud is already available. The remaining components will be available this fall.
What about streaming?
No streaming. (I will be writing another post with my theories on why Apple did not roll out streaming).
Why is iCloud transformational?
- Comprehensive – It is the first and only service that manages such a wide gamut of “stuff” on the cloud.
- Invisible – It is so well integrated with the Apple ecosystem, that consumers may not even notice it. Stuff just becomes available across devices.
- Big impact – Except for iTunes Match, it is free. At that price point, adoption of iCloud by anyone with an Apple device is a no brainer. With millions of Apple customers using iCloud, the standard for managing multiple devices has changed permanently. For the better.
Even though Google and Amazon have not yet released their cloud music service in India, the excitement around it is palpable in cities where 3G has been rolled out. One of our team members, Rakshith, can’t wait for Google Music to come to India because he wants access to music anywhere, anytime. To quote him “Have a 3G connection and u have all ur songs in one click. And its FREE if im not wrong.” He was referring to the free 20000 song upload for the Google Music Beta. I asked, “What about 3G costs?”. We had a good debate and that was that.
The matter resurfaced over the weekend though, when a visitor on our blog sent me an email about streaming music. He seemed very keen about it because “anyway i pay for 3G”.
For some reason, people seem to be putting blinders on when it comes to 3G costs. Sorry to burst the bubble, my fellow music buffs but here is something you should know about the prevalent 3G plans:
- The more you use, the more you pay. There is no unlimited plan. You cannot justify your music streaming with “anyway I am paying” rationale.
- 3G plans are not cheap.
Based on your listening habits and assuming music streamed at 128kbps, here’s what your 3G cost would be:
|Hours of streaming per month||5||10||15||20||25
|Bandwidth used (MB)||281.25||562.5||843.75||1125||1406.25
|Approx annual cost based on current tarrifs (Rs)||2400||5400||6000||8100||10125
If your argument then is that you’re willing to pay this price for the convenience of having access to your music everywhere, I would say you can pay a lower price for a portable media player like an iPod, which you can truly access everywhere unlike over 3G which is only available in some cities and is unpredictable even in cities it’s rolled out (I’ve been a 3G user for almost a year). You actually save money if you buy a media player:
|If you listen to..||…you could buy||…at Rs||…and save over 5 years (approx life of device) Rs
|5 hrs of music per month||iPod shuffle||3200||6628
|10 hrs of music per month||iPod nano 8GB||10700||11413
|15 hrs of music per month||iPod nano 16GB||12700||11870
|20 hrs of music per month||iPod Classic||15200||17970
|25 hrs of music per month||iPod Classic||15200||26263
The savings calculation factors in a 10% reduction in 3G tarrif every year over 5 years. Of course, iPod is a premium product and the savings would be much higher if you bought a cheaper media player.
The only compelling argument I can think of for streaming music on the cloud is that your music collection is so big that it does not fit in any portable media player (more than 160GB if you consider iPod).
So, before you jump on to the cloud music bandwagon, you might want to figure out what your 3G cost works out to based on your listening habits and compare it against the cost of a suitable media player.